Views: 5096 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2021-12-24 Origin: Site
As the New Year approaches, due to the high outbreak period of overseas demand and the peak shipment period before and after the year, the ocean freight rate may increase again!
Shipping company's surcharge rates for Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific routes
According to the Baltic Sea Freight Index (FBX), the spot freight index for the past week has remained basically unchanged.
European routes: Omi Keron mutant strains have caused the European epidemic to continue to rebound, and the recovery process of the supply chain system has slowed down.
However, the relationship between supply and demand is good. Transportation demand is stable, the average space utilization rate of ships is close to full load, and the freight rate trend is stable. The freight rate from Asia to Northern Europe is stable at 14,496USD/FEU;
North American routes: The recent worsening of the epidemic in the United States, coupled with the continuous spread of Omi Keron, has brought the number of new cases back to more than 100,000 per day, and the pace of economic recovery has shown signs of slowing down.
However, the supply and demand is stable, the transportation demand continues to remain high after the traditional transportation season, and the average space utilization rate of ships is close to the full load level. The freight rates from Asia to West America and East America are 14,862 USD/FEU and 16,828 USD/FEU respectively.
However, it is understood that the shipping company is preparing to launch GRI and FAK of up to 1,000USD/FEU on the entire Asia-Europe and Trans-Pacific routes from January 1st, and in some cases, it will also reintroduce equipment and space guarantees premium.
In addition, for shippers, the even more unwelcome news is that the increase in fuel prices this quarter will trigger an upgrade in the calculation method of the carrier’s fuel surcharge from January 1. For example, CMA CGM will increase The Asia-Northern Europe BAF is adjusted to US345USD/TEU.
Freightos research director Judah Levine pointed out that the recent outbreak epidemic in Zhejiang, including the Omicron mutant virus, may cause further damage to the supply chain and increase rate pressure.
Freight rates for intra-Asia routes are also soaring
A freight forwarder in Shanghai said that 90% of container ships are delayed after leaving Chinese ports, and the congestion bottleneck at the destination port is the culprit.
"After nearly two months of low freight rates, ocean freight prices have risen again. The overall freight volume outside of China is small, but the interruption of overseas logistics chains and the low efficiency of port handling are the main reasons for the sharp increase in freight rates."
The intra-Asia trade routes from China to Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka are in high demand, because factories in these areas have recently reopened due to unblocking, so they need a lot of raw materials from China.
"Before the epidemic, the normal freight rate for these destinations was about 200-300 USD, and the highest price last year was 2,000 USD. Now, some freight rates have exceeded 3,000 USD." The forwarder said.
The freight rate of the European line will increase by 2.5-5 times next year
At the same time, shipping data consulting company Xeneta (freight comparison analysis platform) stated that according to the first batch of data obtained from its shipper users, most contract freight rates in 2022 will be reached "at a record high level." .
Signing of long-term agreements on European routes in 2022 has begun in recent days. Xeneta said that the average price of long-term contracts in the Asia-Northern Europe region signed at 11,900USD/FEU in the past three months.
As the global shipping industry is in a seller’s market currently , in addition to significantly increasing the long-term contract price by 2.5 to 5 times, shipping companies not only select customers when signing new contracts, but also small and medium-sized customers who do not sign.
In addition, the carrier adopts different strategies. For example, Hapag-Lloyd requires three years for a signing, Maersk does not sign long-term contracts with customers generally , and the binding clauses of new contracts have also increased significantly!
Due to the contract price that took effect in the past year (2021), the freight rate for each large container (40-foot container) is only between 2,000 and 4,000 USD based on the signed volume and transportation conditions, which has soared since then in the spot market. Compared with the sea freight, it is too far away.
Maersk said in October this year that the company's 40-foot container is about 4,000 USD, but the market price reaches 20,000 USD. It is evident that the agent has made huge profits from it!
Maersk also encourages direct cargo shippers to skip the intermediate link and directly book space in the future. This may also be the reason why Maersk adjusted its operating strategy.
Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said that shippers need to decide whether they have "any real alternative" in addition to agreeing to accept these record high rates.
He said: "Although the absolute level of the upcoming long-term price may surprise people, the fact that it follows the trend of the spot market should not be surprising, because the long-term and short-term rates are related."
Xeneta stated that the stability and predictable importance of the global supply chain will be "the top priority for many shippers in these difficult negotiations."
